Statistical principles for ecological status classification of Water Framework Directive monitoring data

Bias, precision and confidence of the classification framework are crucial elements for decisions to invest large sums to improve the ecological quality. In this study, the statistical principles for classification in relation to WFD are outlined and exemplified. Indicator adjustment to seasonal variation and other significant covariates reduces bias and improves precision. Precision is generally improved using annual means with seasonal adjustment instead of seasonal means. For classification I argue that the balance between costs of monitoring and reduction measures is only fully maintained by the fail-safe approach. The required monitoring efforts to ensure a precise classification are substantially higher than envisaged in WFD, for nutrients and phytoplankton measurements as high as 500 observations to characterise a water body. It must be ensured that sufficient monitoring data become available for classification, while indicator bias and precision is improved through modelling and further development of measurement techniques.     

Estimating geoid height change in North America: past, present and future

The forthcoming GRAV-D gravimetric geoid model over the United States is to be updated regularly to account for changes in geoid height. Its baseline precision is to be at the 10–20 mm level over non-mountainous regions. The aim of this study is to provide an estimate of the magnitude, time scale, and spatial footprint of geoid height change over North America, from mass redistribution processes of hydrologic, cryospheric and solid Earth nature. Geoid height changes from continental water storage changes over the past 50 years and predicted over the next century are evaluated and are highly dependent on the used model. Groundwater depletion from anthropogenic pumping in regional scale aquifers may lead to geoid changes of 10 mm magnitude every 50–100 years. The GRACE time varying gravity fields are used to (i) assess the errors in a glacial isostatic adjustment model, which, if used to correct the GRAV-D model, may induce errors at the 10 mm geoid height level after ~20 years, (ii), evaluate geoid height change over ice mass loss regions of North America, which, if they remain unchanged in the future, may lead to geoid height changes at the 10 mm level in under a decade and (iii), compute sea level rise and its effect on the geoid, which is found to be negligible. Coseismic gravitational changes from past North American earthquakes are evaluated, and lead to geoid change at the 10-mm level for only the largest thrust earthquakes. Finally, geoid change from volcanic processes are assessed and found to be significant with respect to the GRAV-D geoid model baseline precision for cataclysmic events, such as that of the 1980 Mt. St. Helens eruption. Recommendations on how to best monitor geoid change in the future are given.     

Public-space planning in four Nordic cities: Symbolic values in tension

This article takes its point of departure in the assumption that values shape planning practices and that alternatively one can reconstruct such values from the way planning interventions are argued and evaluated. We contend that planners’ discourses involve implicit value commitments that are observable in their representations of public space and implicated in the results of public-space planning. The paper builds an empirical case from representations of public space elaborated in planning documents developed by planners in four medium-sized Nordic cities. We show how these planning representations form four thematic value clusters concerning urban public space, namely leisure-play, identity-unity, power-organization and unruliness-change. Together these clusters constitute a value framework which reveals a number of central tensions relating to the way that planners seek to balance order and spontaneity in public space. The paper concludes by outlining and discussing these values and the tensions they represent.     

Volcanoes as possible indicators of tectonic stress orientation — Aleutians and Alaska

A new method for obtaining from volcanic surface features the orientations of the principal tectonic stresses is applied to Aleutian and Alaskan volcanoes. The underlying concept for this method is that flank eruptions for polygenetic volcanoes can be regarded as the result of a large-scale natural magmafracturing experiment. The method essentially relies on the recognition of the preferred orientation of radial and parallel dike swarms, primarily using the distribution of monogenetic craters including flank volcanoes. Since dikes tend to propagate in a direction normal to the minimum principal stress (T-axis), the method primarily yields the direction of the maximum horizontal compression (MHC) of regional origin. The direction of the MHC may correspond to either the maximum (P-axis) or intermediate (B-axis) principal stress.The direction of MHC obtained at 20 volcanoes in the Aleutian arc coincides well with the direction of convergence between the Pacific and North American plates. This result provides evidence that in the island arc the inferred direction of MHC is parallel to the maximum principal tectonic stress. In the back-arc region, general E-W trends of MHC are obtained from seven volcanic fields on islands on the Bering Sea shelf and the mainland coast of Alaska. These volcanic fields consist mostly of clusters of monogenetic volcanoes of alkali basalt. In the back-arc region, the trends of MHC may correspond to an E-W intermediate, a vertical maximum, and a N-S minimum principal stress.Implications for the tectonics of island arcs and back-arc regions are: (1) volcanic belts of some island arcs, including the Aleutian arc, are under compressional deviatoric stress in the direction of plate convergence. It is improbable that such arcs would split along the volcanic axis to form actively spreading marginal basins. (2) This compressional stress at the arc, probably generated by underthrusting, appears to be transmitted across the entire arc structure, but is apparently replaced within several hundred kilometers by a stress system characterized by horizontal extension (tensional deviatoric stress) in the back-arc region. (3) The volcanoes associated with these two stress systems differ in type (polygenetic vs. monogenetic) and in the chemistry of their magmas (andesitic vs. basaltic). These differences and the regional differences in orientation of the principal tectonic stresses suggest that the back-arc stress system has its own source at considerable depth beneath the crust.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2503.     

Monitoring coastal evolution and associated littoral hazards of French Guiana shoreline with radar images

This paper aims at illustrating different case examples of monitoring active coastal evolutions using remote sensing synthetic aperture radar images (ERS 1–2 and Envisat) in humid tropical areas. Effectively, the radar satellite images may be acquired under most climate conditions, especially in cloudy tropical areas. As case examples, we studied herein French Guiana shoreline and its fast evolution under the combined influences of sea currents, sediments and swells. We focused on two aspects of French Guiana littoral evolution: (1) sedimentation and erosion processes linked to mud banks displacements around Kourou City, and (2) around Iracoubo village. Lastly, we compared this short-term sedimentation balance with long-term data showing the discrepancies of short- and long-term littoral evolutions on whole French Guiana. To conclude, this work demonstrates the importance of SAR imagery to provide high-quality and high-frequency update geographic information for coastal management and littoral hazards especially in such tropical humid and cloudy areas. To cite this article: H. Trebossen et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

A Review and Evaluation of Specific Heat Capacities of Rocks,Minerals, and Subsurface Fluids. Part 2: Fluids and Porous Rocks

Heat capacities of solid sediments and pore fluids within a basin can influence geothermal gradients when sedimentation or erosion is rapid. This paper provides data on specific heat capacities of pore fluids and porous rocks. It includes data on specific heat capacities of water, ice, and gas hydrates at reference temperatures, as well as equations for calculating the specific heat capacity of those substances as a function of temperature. It also provides values for specific heat capacities of oil and natural gases at low temperatures, as well as equations describing the temperature and pressure dependence of the specific heat capacities of those substances. Finally, it shows how to calculate the specific heat capacity of mixtures of solid materials, or of mixtures of solids and pore fluids. The data and equations provided herein can be incorporated directly into existing modeling software by users and software developers.     

High Sensitivity Analysis of Trace Element-Poor Geological Reference Glasses by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS)

Fifty-two trace elements in NIST SRM 614, 616 and MPI-DING BM90/21-G glass reference materials as well as in NIST SRM 612, USGS BCR2-G and other MPI-DING reference glasses (KL2-G, GOR132-G, GOR128-G, ATHO-G, Tl-G, StHs6/80-G and ML3B-G) were determined by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Accurate ultra-low trace element abundances in the NIST SRM 614, 616 and BM90/21-G reference glasses down to lower ng g⁻¹ levels were determined with relative standard deviations (RSD) of less than 10%. Limits of detection using He as carrier gas were up to two times lower than with Ar and were 0.004 to 0.12 μg g⁻¹ for elements of lower mass numbers (amu < 85) and 0.002 to 0.06 μg g⁻¹ for elements having amu < 85. The measured concentrations generally agree within 15% with previous studies except for B in NIST SRM 614 and 616, which appears to be heterogeneously distributed, and Co, Zn, Ga and Ag in NIST SRM 616 for which the existing data set is too small to evaluate the discrepancies. New values for As (0.593 μg g⁻¹), Ag (0.361 μg g⁻¹) and Cd (0.566 μg g⁻¹) in NIST SRM 614 and new values for Na (94864 μg g⁻¹) and As (0.276 μg g⁻¹) in NIST SRM 616 are reported.